Nigeria’s economy recorded a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.89% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting an improvement from the 3.13% growth recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
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This is according to fresh GDP data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The latest figures indicate continued expansion across major sectors of the economy, supported by stronger agricultural activity, steady industrial output and sustained growth in the services sector.
In nominal terms, aggregate GDP at basic prices rose to N110.79 trillion in Q1 2026 from N94.05 trillion in Q1 2025, representing a nominal year-on-year growth of 17.79 per cent.
The economy remained broadly driven by non-oil activities, although the oil sector also posted moderate growth despite lower production volumes during the quarter.
What the report is saying
The latest GDP report showed that the non-oil sector remained the dominant driver of economic growth, while agriculture recorded a significant rebound.
- The non-oil sector grew by 3.94% in real terms and accounted for 96.08% of total real GDP.
- The services sector remained the largest contributor to output, accounting for 57.73% of GDP and growing by 4.31% year-on-year.
- Agriculture recorded strong recovery with real growth of 3.15%, compared to just 0.07% in the corresponding period of 2025.
The report showed that key growth drivers included telecommunications, crop production, trade, cement manufacturing, financial services, construction, transportation and real estate activities.
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The oil sector posted moderate growth despite lower crude oil production during the quarter.
- Average crude oil production declined to 1.55 million barrels per day in Q1 2026 from 1.62 million barrels per day recorded in Q1 2025.
- Despite lower output, the oil sector grew by 2.57% in real terms, higher than the 1.87 per cent growth recorded in Q1 2025.
- The oil sector contributed 3.92% to total real GDP, slightly below 3.97% recorded a year earlier.
- Construction grew strongly by 6.38% in real terms, while manufacturing posted nominal growth of 10.22%.
The industrial sector maintained stable performance overall, growing by 3.50% in Q1 2026 compared to 3.42% recorded in the same period of 2025.
What you should know
Nairametrics earlier reported that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.07% year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025.
Global institutions have expressed cautious optimism about Nigeria’s growth trajectory earlier in the year.
- The World Bank has maintained its 4.4 per cent growth forecast for Nigeria in 2027.
- The World Bank upgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth estimate to 4.4% from 3.7% projected in June 2025.
S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign and local currency credit ratings to ‘B’ from ‘B-’.
The global ratings agency also affirmed Nigeria’s short-term sovereign ratings at ‘B’, while raising the country’s national scale ratings to ‘ngA+/ngA-1’ from ‘ngBBB+/ngA-2’, with a stable outlook.
