Nigeria improving aircraft leasing credibility in global markets — Shiekuma Gemade

For the past two to three years, Nigeria’s aviation sector has recorded several regulatory milestones, including exiting the Aviation Working Group (AWG) watchlist and achieving a 75.5% compliance score on the Cape Town Convention (CTC) Index, reflecting improved alignment with global aircraft leasing standards.

These gains have been driven by reforms to key legal and regulatory frameworks, including improvements to the IDERA process under the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority, aimed at strengthening creditor protections in aircraft financing.

However, despite these advances, aircraft leasing activity and broader financing inflows remain limited in practice.

In an exclusive interview with Nairametrics, Nigerian-born aviation executive and Chief Operating Officer at Aircraft Finance Germany (AFG), Shiekuma Gemade, offered a detailed assessment of the structural realities shaping global aircraft leasing, aviation financing, and fleet development, with a particular focus on Nigeria’s reform trajectory.

With over two decades of global aviation experience spanning senior roles at Delta Air Lines in operations and maintenance, fleet management exposure, and involvement in Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh Air development project, he brings a cross-market perspective to aircraft leasing and portfolio structuring.

Nairametrics: Nigeria exited the Aviation Working Group (AWG) watchlist in 2024 after achieving a 75.5% compliance score on the Cape Town Convention (CTC) Index, following improvements to its IDERA framework under the NCAA. How meaningful is this development in practical terms for improving Nigeria’s credibility and access to global aircraft leasing and aviation financing markets? 

Shiekuma Gemade: Exiting the AWG watchlist is a huge step for Nigeria’s aviation industry. Having closely followed the sector for years, including during my National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) service at the Ministry of Aviation in Abuja, I understand just how significant this progress is.

The achievements recorded under Honourable Minister Festus Keyamo over the past two and a half to three years have been remarkable. Credit must be given where it is due, as reaching a 75.5% compliance score within such a timeframe reflects strong leadership and clear intentionality.

This development sends a strong signal to global aircraft lessors and financial institutions that Nigeria is serious about aligning with international best practices. It shows that the country is ready to operate more credibly within the global aviation ecosystem, improving investor confidence and strengthening access to aircraft leasing and aviation financing opportunities

Nairametrics: Since Nigeria’s exit from the AWG watchlist in 2024, Air Peace’s late 2025 dry lease delivery remains the only visible aircraft financing transaction among Nigerian airlines. From your experience in global aircraft leasing, what does this suggest about how effectively recent reforms are translating into real aircraft availability and leasing activity in the market? 

Shiekuma Gemade: That is a very good question. If Nigeria’s reforms have been so positive, why has there been only one visible dry lease transaction so far? The answer lies in two major factors.

First, there is what I call the lagging effect. Capital, finance, and trust all take time to respond to reforms. Regulatory improvements do not immediately trigger a wave of leasing activity. Leasing companies need time for their risk departments to reassess Nigeria, adjust their market outlook, and determine whether the environment is truly improving.

Second, there are nuanced or indirect factors. Aviation is a relationship-driven industry, and trust plays a major role. Lessors want reassurance not just from policies on paper, but from consistent execution, operational reliability, and broader ecosystem stability.

For example, lessors also evaluate maintenance infrastructure, airport quality, air traffic systems, fuel price stability, and the overall sustainability of airline operations. If airlines cannot operate efficiently or profitably, lessors face greater risk regardless of legal protections.

This is why aviation reform must be approached holistically. Countries such as Saudi Arabia have demonstrated how intentional, government-backed aviation strategies can transform sector growth. They negotiate and build aviation capacity as a national priority, not merely as individual airlines.

Nigeria has made commendable progress, but to translate reforms into substantial aircraft leasing growth, the country must continue strengthening the entire aviation ecosystem beyond regulatory compliance alone.

Nairametrics: From your perspective at Aircraft Finance Germany, how is Nigeria currently perceived by global lessors and aviation financiers in terms of risk, pricing expectations, and long-term investment potential, and what combination of structures typically needs to be in place before capital begins to flow at scale into such markets? 

Shiekuma Gemade: When global lessors and aviation financiers assess Nigeria today, they can clearly see the remarkable progress made over the past three years under the current leadership. The reforms have been significant and are improving Nigeria’s credibility.

However, there is still a lagging effect when it comes to investor confidence. Lessors continue to evaluate broader factors that directly affect an airline’s ability to generate revenue, operate consistently, and maintain aircraft effectively. These include infrastructure, maintenance capacity, taxation, regulatory consistency, and the broader economic environment.

This is why aviation must be approached through a unified, holistic ecosystem strategy. Sustainable capital inflows require more than regulatory reform alone—they depend on coordinated national leadership that positions aviation as a priority for economic growth and development.

When a country’s leadership, financial institutions, and regulatory agencies align around aviation as a strategic sector, investor confidence strengthens, pricing improves, and large-scale capital becomes far more likely to flow into the market.

Nairametrics: IATA’s 2025 outlook estimated global aircraft order backlogs at about 17,000 aircraft. How are supply chain constraints and limited aircraft availability affecting emerging markets like Nigeria, particularly in terms of access, delivery timelines, and leasing costs? 

Shiekuma Gemade: The global backlog of about 17,000 aircraft presents both challenges and opportunities for emerging markets like Nigeria. In the short term, it limits access to new aircraft, but over time it will also release a significant number of high-quality, mid-life aircraft into the market. That is where Nigeria is most likely to find sustainable value in terms of leasing and acquisition.

However, one of the key challenges we face is fragmentation within the aviation sector. Many airlines operate in isolation, each seeking one or two aircraft at a time. This approach weakens scale, increases costs, and limits efficiency across the industry.

We also see similar fragmentation on the supply side, with multiple leasing interests entering the African market without coordination. What is needed is aggregation—coordinated demand that allows for scale in procurement, maintenance, training, and parts management.

If Nigeria were to coordinate aircraft acquisition more strategically, similar to models seen in countries like Saudi Arabia, it would be possible to negotiate not just aircraft, but also maintenance support, training, and technical partnerships as part of a broader package.

Ultimately, aviation development requires a holistic approach supported by a dedicated, experienced team that can design and execute a long-term national strategy. This is how Nigeria can fully unlock the benefits of global aircraft availability constraints

Nairametrics: How do airlines determine the right mix of narrow-body, wide-body, and freighter aircraft in their fleets, and how do those choices influence financing costs and long-term profitability? 

Shiekuma Gemade: This is fundamentally about airline economics. Aircraft selection depends on several factors, including route structure, airport capacity, passenger demand, and the airline’s overall business plan. There is no universal ‘best’ aircraft type. Everything depends on what the airline is trying to achieve.

In my experience, structuring aircraft acquisitions across markets such as Saudi Arabia, North America, and Singapore, every decision required a detailed, data-driven analysis. You assess the airport network, hub strategy, revenue projections, and market demand before determining the most suitable aircraft type.

Even within the same city, two airlines can receive completely different recommendations based on their individual business models. Some operate point-to-point services, others run hub-and-spoke systems, while some focus on premium or niche markets. Each requires a different fleet composition.

In Nigeria’s case, route planning and capacity utilisation are particularly important. For example, the Abuja–Lagos corridor is heavily serviced, with frequent daily flights, while other routes remain underserved.

A more structured and coordinated approach to route development, fleet planning, and revenue management would allow airlines to operate more efficiently, improve profitability, and expand more sustainably.

Nairametrics: Following the suspension of Nigeria’s national carrier project and recent indications that the government may instead support two to three indigenous airlines as flag carriers. What fleet financing and governance structures would realistically be required for such airlines to scale beyond domestic operations into internationally competitive carriers? 

Shiekuma Gemade: This question again comes down to strategy and scale. As a country, we must first define what structure best supports our aviation ambitions and makes us globally competitive.

When I worked with Delta Airlines during its merger with Northwest, one key lesson was the importance of scale. The goal was to build an airline large enough that suppliers, manufacturers, and financiers would take us seriously and engage with us on a long-term basis.

The same principle applies here. We must assess whether our market can realistically sustain one, two, or three strong airlines. That decision must be based on objective analysis, not emotion or sentiment.

Ultimately, what matters is building an aviation ecosystem that is strong enough to attract sustained investment and favourable financing. When airlines operate at scale, they are able to negotiate better with lessors, OEMs, and financiers because they represent long-term, aggregated demand rather than fragmented, short-term transactions.

Nairametrics: With several MRO projects currently underway in Nigeria, how commercially viable is local MRO development from an aircraft finance and investment perspective, and what conditions would need to be in place for such infrastructure to attract sustainable long-term capital?

Shiekuma Gemade: MROs are, in many ways, the foundation of airline sustainability. In my experience, they are often the difference between airlines surviving difficult periods and struggling operationally. Without strong maintenance capability, airlines are forced to ferry aircraft abroad for even basic servicing, which is neither efficient nor financially sustainable.

However, MRO development is highly capital intensive. There are different categories of MROs depending on their capabilities, and what matters is ensuring that those capabilities align with the aircraft types and maintenance demand within the market.

Successful MROs are built around a clearly defined capabilities list—covering the specific aircraft, components, and systems that are most frequently used in the region. This requires not only investment, but also technical expertise, tooling, and regulatory certification.

More importantly, countries that have successfully developed strong MRO ecosystems have done so through strategic negotiation with OEMs such as Boeing, Airbus, and engine manufacturers. In many cases, aircraft procurement agreements include commitments for local maintenance facilities, training, and technical partnerships.

This is how aviation ecosystems are built globally. When aircraft purchases are treated as part of a broader national strategy, rather than isolated transactions, countries are able to secure long-term infrastructure development alongside fleet expansion.