Nigeria’s businesses expect the naira to gradually strengthen against the United States dollar in the coming months, even as elevated borrowing costs, insecurity, and multiple taxation continue to pressure economic activity.
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This is according to the latest Business Expectations Survey released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The survey, which captured business sentiment for April 2026, showed that firms remain cautiously optimistic about the economy despite persistent structural and macroeconomic challenges.
According to the apex bank, overall business confidence stood at 3.9 index points during the review period.
The report comes at a time when the CBN continues to maintain a tight monetary policy stance aimed at curbing inflation and stabilising the foreign exchange market, while businesses push for lower financing costs and improved operating conditions.
Nairametrics reports that the naira closed on Thursday at N1,371/$1, compared with N1,368.95/$1 recorded the previous day, according to data from the CBN website.
What the report is saying
The CBN said businesses expect the naira to appreciate gradually against the dollar across the short- and medium-term outlook periods.
According to the report:
- Respondents expressed optimism about improved expansionary policy measures, which accounted for 19% of positive sentiment.
- Better access to finance and prospects for economic diversification contributed 13% each to business optimism.
- The industry sector recorded the highest confidence level at 8.8 index points, reflecting stronger sentiment in manufacturing and industrial activities.
- Businesses in the North-East expressed the strongest optimism among all regions surveyed.
The apex bank also noted that confidence remained positive for the next one month, three months, and six months, indicating that businesses expect macroeconomic conditions to improve gradually over time.
However, the report showed that borrowing costs are expected to remain elevated despite expectations of exchange-rate stability and improved liquidity conditions.
More insights
Despite improving confidence levels, businesses identified several major constraints affecting operations and expansion plans across the country.
According to the survey:
- Insecurity ranked as the biggest challenge facing businesses, scoring 74.1 points.
- High and multiple taxation followed closely with 70.5 points.
- High interest rates scored 67.4 points, reflecting concerns over elevated borrowing costs.
- High bank charges and competition scored 62.8 points and 61.8 points respectively.
Other challenges highlighted by respondents included financial constraints and poor infrastructure, underscoring the persistent structural issues affecting Nigeria’s business environment.
The CBN noted that concerns over energy-related issues, governance challenges, and geopolitical risks also continued to weigh heavily on business sentiment during the review period.
What you should know
The latest survey suggests that businesses are beginning to see signs of macroeconomic stabilisation, particularly in the foreign exchange market, following ongoing reforms introduced by the Federal Government and the CBN.
The CBN is scheduled to hold its 305th Monetary Policy Committee meeting next week, with investors watching for policy direction.
At its last meeting, the CBN reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 26.5 per cent from 27 per cent.
