Five stocks leading NGX’s 2026 rally, but the fundamentals don’t add up

The Nigerian stock market (NGX) has had a remarkable 2026 so far. The All-Share Index (NGXASI) is up 56.40% year-to-date, although lower than the May gain of about 61%.

Yet within that headline rally, a smaller and more unsettling story is playing out. Five stocks, tiny by NGX standards, have posted gains that make the broader market look pedestrian.

Between January and June 2026, Zichis Agro Allied Industries, Fortis Global Insurance, SCOA Nigeria, RT Briscoe, and Redstar Express have surged between 252% and 1,604%. Their combined market cap stands at N115.7 billion. Their earnings, in most cases, tell a very different story.

Zichis: The one stock with real earnings, but the price has gone too far 

Of the five, Zichis tells the most complicated story. Full-year 2025 revenue grew 134% to N675.6 million while profit surged 478% to N328.1 million.

Q1 2026 was even more striking; N420 million in revenue and N228.9 million in profit in a single quarter, up 819% year-on-year. The balance sheet is virtually debt-free.

The 1,604% rally was not built entirely on air, but the current price has absorbed several years of future earnings growth in advance.

Dangote Cement; Nigeria’s biggest company is cheaper relative to its earnings than Zichis is today. The price is already retreating, down 6.52% month-on-month.

For investors: those holding should consider taking some profit off the table. New investors would be wiser to wait for a meaningful pullback.

The growth story is real, but at N30.85, much of it has already been priced in.

Fortis: A loss-making stock that has defied logic, until now 

Fortis is the most straightforward story and the most alarming. The company posted a net loss of N1.69 billion, negative EPS of -N0.13, and a Q1 2026 loss of N576.5 million, worse than a year ago.

Accumulated losses stand at N18.87 billion. Borrowings jumped 49% to N5.74 billion even as losses deepened, and cash fell 31% in a single year.

The stock rallied 515% by March, but June has wiped N775 million in market value, pulling YTD gains back to 370%. The trading data is equally telling; 1.25 billion shares traded in three months but valued at only N1.53 billion.

That is a penny stock being churned by retail momentum. The volume spike of 215 million shares on May 7, ten times the daily average, marks the rally peak almost precisely.

For investors: there is no fundamental case for Fortis at current prices. Be cautious until the business turns profitable. Watch the June 22 earnings date closely.

SCOA: A profit recovery built on shrinking revenue 

SCOA’s earnings recovery is genuine, from a N591.4 million loss in 2022 to a net income of N553.7 million in 2025.

But revenue has swung wildly and stands at N8.36 billion today, nearly half of where it was four years ago. A company making more profit on less revenue is not necessarily growing.

It may simply shrink more efficiently. Book value per share is technically negative, and the Relative Strength Index has hit 100, signalling that the stock has been bought so aggressively that a pullback is almost inevitable.

For investors: the key date is July 24 — SCOA’s next earnings release. Those holding should take profits now. New investors should wait for evidence that revenue growth, not just cost-cutting, is driving profits.

RT Briscoe: The strongest revenue story, but watch the balance sheet 

RT Briscoe makes the most credible fundamental case of the five.

Revenue has grown 240% in four years to N40.4 billion in 2025; Q1 2026 is tracking toward a N60 billion full year, and at a P/E of just 4.9x it is by far the cheapest stock in this group.

The 284% rally looks more like a market recognising a deeply undervalued business than a speculative chase.

The caution is the balance sheet; the company’s liabilities exceed its assets, which explains why no dividend has been paid since 2021 despite two strong profit years.

The RSI of 51.65, the most neutral of all five, suggests the price is finding a natural level rather than being chased by momentum.

For investors: RT Briscoe is the most reasonable call of the five. Those holding are on solid ground. New investors should watch the July 30 earnings; a strong Q2 would justify confidence in this recovery.

Redstar: The most consistent business, but Q1 2026 has raised questions

Redstar is the only stock in this group that has been profitable every single year from 2021 to 2025, grown revenue without interruption, and paid dividends four years running.

The balance sheet carries positive equity of N5.63 billion with no significant debt.

But Q1 2026 introduced the first crack; profit of N175.8 million was 40% below Q1 2025, revenue was flat, and no dividend has been declared for 2025.

The June pullback of 9.85%, wiping N3.197 billion in market value after a N5.58 billion gain in May, suggests the market is noticing.

For investors: Redstar is the best underlying business of the five, but the current price demands growth that Q1 2026 has not delivered.

Those holding can afford patience; the RSI of 49.23 signals an orderly correction, not a collapse. Trimming at current levels while the stock is still up 252% on the year is a sensible way to protect gains while the next results play out.

The bottom line 

• Four of the five stocks are negative month-on-month. The easy gains are behind this group.
• Fortis has no fundamental case. SCOA and Zichis have real earnings but prices that have run ahead of them.
• RT Briscoe and Redstar are the most credible businesses, but even if they are priced for performance, their most recent results have not confirmed it.
• What connects all five is the same environment: retail money chasing returns above inflation, thin free floats that amplify buying pressure, and momentum that rewards early movers regardless of what lies underneath.
• For investors still holding, the question is no longer whether to take profits; it is how much longer to wait.

The Nigerian stock market (NGX) has had a remarkable 2026 so far. The All-Share Index (NGXASI) is up 56.40% year-to-date, although lower than the May gain of about 61%.

Yet within that headline rally, a smaller and more unsettling story is playing out. Five stocks, tiny by NGX standards, have posted gains that make the broader market look pedestrian.

Between January and June 2026, Zichis Agro Allied Industries, Fortis Global Insurance, SCOA Nigeria, RT Briscoe, and Redstar Express have surged between 252% and 1,604%. Their combined market cap stands at N115.7 billion. Their earnings, in most cases, tell a very different story.

Zichis: The one stock with real earnings, but the price has gone too far 

Of the five, Zichis tells the most complicated story. Full-year 2025 revenue grew 134% to N675.6 million while profit surged 478% to N328.1 million.

Q1 2026 was even more striking; N420 million in revenue and N228.9 million in profit in a single quarter, up 819% year-on-year. The balance sheet is virtually debt-free.

The 1,604% rally was not built entirely on air, but the current price has absorbed several years of future earnings growth in advance.

Dangote Cement; Nigeria’s biggest company is cheaper relative to its earnings than Zichis is today. The price is already retreating, down 6.52% month-on-month.

For investors: those holding should consider taking some profit off the table. New investors would be wiser to wait for a meaningful pullback.

The growth story is real, but at N30.85, much of it has already been priced in.

Fortis: A loss-making stock that has defied logic, until now 

Fortis is the most straightforward story and the most alarming. The company posted a net loss of N1.69 billion, negative EPS of -N0.13, and a Q1 2026 loss of N576.5 million, worse than a year ago.

Accumulated losses stand at N18.87 billion. Borrowings jumped 49% to N5.74 billion even as losses deepened, and cash fell 31% in a single year.

The stock rallied 515% by March, but June has wiped N775 million in market value, pulling YTD gains back to 370%. The trading data is equally telling; 1.25 billion shares traded in three months but valued at only N1.53 billion.

That is a penny stock being churned by retail momentum. The volume spike of 215 million shares on May 7, ten times the daily average, marks the rally peak almost precisely.

For investors: there is no fundamental case for Fortis at current prices. Be cautious until the business turns profitable. Watch the June 22 earnings date closely.

SCOA: A profit recovery built on shrinking revenue 

SCOA’s earnings recovery is genuine, from a N591.4 million loss in 2022 to a net income of N553.7 million in 2025.

But revenue has swung wildly and stands at N8.36 billion today, nearly half of where it was four years ago. A company making more profit on less revenue is not necessarily growing.

It may simply shrink more efficiently. Book value per share is technically negative, and the Relative Strength Index has hit 100, signalling that the stock has been bought so aggressively that a pullback is almost inevitable.

For investors: the key date is July 24 — SCOA’s next earnings release. Those holding should take profits now. New investors should wait for evidence that revenue growth, not just cost-cutting, is driving profits.

RT Briscoe: The strongest revenue story, but watch the balance sheet 

RT Briscoe makes the most credible fundamental case of the five.

Revenue has grown 240% in four years to N40.4 billion in 2025; Q1 2026 is tracking toward a N60 billion full year, and at a P/E of just 4.9x it is by far the cheapest stock in this group.

The 284% rally looks more like a market recognising a deeply undervalued business than a speculative chase.

The caution is the balance sheet; the company’s liabilities exceed its assets, which explains why no dividend has been paid since 2021 despite two strong profit years.

The RSI of 51.65, the most neutral of all five, suggests the price is finding a natural level rather than being chased by momentum.

For investors: RT Briscoe is the most reasonable call of the five. Those holding are on solid ground. New investors should watch the July 30 earnings; a strong Q2 would justify confidence in this recovery.

Redstar: The most consistent business, but Q1 2026 has raised questions

Redstar is the only stock in this group that has been profitable every single year from 2021 to 2025, grown revenue without interruption, and paid dividends four years running.

The balance sheet carries positive equity of N5.63 billion with no significant debt.

But Q1 2026 introduced the first crack; profit of N175.8 million was 40% below Q1 2025, revenue was flat, and no dividend has been declared for 2025.

The June pullback of 9.85%, wiping N3.197 billion in market value after a N5.58 billion gain in May, suggests the market is noticing.

For investors: Redstar is the best underlying business of the five, but the current price demands growth that Q1 2026 has not delivered.

Those holding can afford patience; the RSI of 49.23 signals an orderly correction, not a collapse. Trimming at current levels while the stock is still up 252% on the year is a sensible way to protect gains while the next results play out.

The bottom line 

• Four of the five stocks are negative month-on-month. The easy gains are behind this group.
• Fortis has no fundamental case. SCOA and Zichis have real earnings but prices that have run ahead of them.
• RT Briscoe and Redstar are the most credible businesses, but even if they are priced for performance, their most recent results have not confirmed it.
• What connects all five is the same environment: retail money chasing returns above inflation, thin free floats that amplify buying pressure, and momentum that rewards early movers regardless of what lies underneath.
• For investors still holding, the question is no longer whether to take profits; it is how much longer to wait.